EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Prices and Forecasts

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Prices and Forecasts

Euro Price, News and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD wilts as US bond yields rise.
  • EUR/GBP rebound finds sellers in the wings.
EUR Forecast

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EUR/USD is currently struggling to hold onto the 1.21 handle after having fallen from just 1.2250 yesterday, as US Treasury yields jumped, underpinning the greenback. The EUR/USD sell-off over the last 24 hours has broken the recent uptrend, which looked primed for a run at the early January high print at 1.2349, and the short-term outlook for the pair is now neutral. The 20-day simple moving average is located at 1.2100 and a break below here opens the way to a prior support level around 1.2054, an area that is likely to hold in the short-term. EUR/USD looks set to continue trading within a 1.2050/1.2350 range for the time being.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – February 26, 2021)

EUR/USD Daily Chart

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI

IG Retail trader datashow 41.27% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.42 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.

EUR/GBP is being moved by a different force with the British Pound continuing its strong run of late, despite yesterday’s pop lower. The pair dropped sharply mid-week in Asian times before recovering and bounced higher late yesterday as the Euro benefitted from a haven bid. As we go into the weekend EUR/GBP is back below 0.8700 and the path of least resistance remains to the downside, although this week’s moves have started to bring short-term price action into question. The medium-term outlook for the pair remains lower but in the short-term EUR/GBP may drift back up to the 0.8740-0.8750 level before resuming the downtrend. Keep an eye on EU and UK vaccination data as this continues to be one of the main drivers of the pair.

GBP Forecast

GBP Forecast

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EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – February 26, 2021)

EURGBP chart

What is your view on EUR/USD andEUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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By: Nick Cawley

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