NOG Q4 results — production down, dividend up

NOG Q4 results — production down, dividend up

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NOG (NYSE:NOG) reported Q4 results after the close Thursday, posting in-line results, guiding production down, lifting capex, and boosting the dividend:

  • Earnings – NOG reported $1.06 in adjusted earnings per share during Q4, versus Wall Street expectations for $1.08; the Company generated ~$71m in free cash flow during the quarter, or ~4.0% of the current market capitalization.
  • Production – 2022 production was guided to 72.5kboe/d (midpoint) versus Q4 results of 64.2kboe/d (+13% sequentially); adjusting for the close of the Veritas acquisition in January, production is guided down 5% sequentially.
  • Capital – capex was guided to ~$383m (midpoint), versus 2021 levels at $253m (+51%).
  • Shareholders – the dividend was raised 75% to 14c quarterly, representing a 2.4% forward yield.

NOG is a favorite amongst Wall Street analysts, though with shares up 500%+ from pandemic lows, production falling, and capex rising, the risk / reward profile is shifting rapidly.

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