U.S. wheat futures surged on Monday, supported by news that Russia had attacked Ukrainian port cities, adding to concerns about potentially lengthy disruptions to shipments out of the Black Sea area.
Wheat (W_1:COM) for July delivery settled +5.1% to $10.93 per bushel on the CBOT, which helped lift July corn (C_1:COM) +2.1% to $7.42 1/2 per bushel, while soybeans (S_1:COM) closed +0.1% to $16.99 1/4 per bushel.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB)
The missile strikes “undermined the credibility of Russia’s claims that it had no intention of blocking the flow of food-based commodities out of Ukraine’s ports,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at brokerage StoneX, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said there could be as much as 75M metric tons of grain stuck in Ukraine by this fall.
Australia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, is forecast to produce another huge harvest this season, which could eventually help contain rising prices.
Gains in corn are not likely to last, Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital said, according to The Wall Street Journal: “Unless we turn the blowtorch on [U.S.] Midwest weather, this is nothing more than a short covering rally in a bear market.”
Wheat and corn futures fell sharply last week on the possibility that Russia could lift its blockade of Black Sea ports.